Written by: Manny Cordova
In the main event for the night we have former champ and gold metal champion Henry “Triple
C” Cejudo or the “Short King” as he calls himself vs Song Yadong in Seattle Washington. From
a betting standpoint you have one of the all time UFC greats, a 2 division champ as an
underdog at +220. Give me that value all day. Now “The Short King” will have his hands full
with Song there is no doubt. I don’t feel great about this one. But I do see Song tire himself out
in previous fights and with this one being a 5 round main event, I see the likelihood of that
happening being very strong with a world class wrestler as Cejudo is. This has been the
blueprint to beating Song in the past and I expect that to exploited this Saturday. If its not
obvious by now I’m am going with Cejudo in this fight but the reason I dont love it is because
he wasted some of the best years in a dispute over money with the UFC. Where he retired sat
out 2 years and now is back. His first 2 fights since being back were against the best the UFC
has to offer in Merab Dvalishvili and Aljamain Sterling both current and former champions.
Which both were losses but pretty understandable considering everything. Cejudo is 38 and
has a lot to prove. A 2 fight losing streak against current and former champs is understandable,
a 3 strike losing streak could make him irrelevant and Cejudo will have motivation to get this
win. And with a path do it I believe he gets it done. Now I don’t think he can stand there and
trade with Song but he can take Song down, control him and win this fight. Song has been
taken down at ease. His first fight in the UFC against Cody Stamann Song gets taken down 5
times. In his loss vs Kyler Phillips gets taken down 3 times and controlled. Then in his fight
again Petr Yan who no one would confuse has a great wrestler he gets taken down as well.
Song stands in the pocket flat footed and wants to trade strikes, which makes him an easy
target for Cejudo.
My Pick: Henry Cejudo +220
Props:
-Fight goes the distance/over 4.5 rounds
-(Long Shot) Cejudo by split decision
Anthony Hernandez will take on Brandon Allen in a middle weight bout that should be one of
the most interesting to watch but much more difficult to bet on. I love Anthony “Fluffy”
Hernandez but he will have his hands full with Brandon Allen on Saturday night. Now if this was
a 5 round main event fight give me Hernandez all day long. This 3 rounder favors Brandon Allen
in my opinion. Allen has fought top level competition, is 3 inches taller, an excellent grappler in
his own right, has 8 wins by submission and is a better striker than Hernandez. Now the
consensus I am getting is Hernandez will take Allen down and ground and pound him in to
submission. While that is a possibility lets not forget Brandon Allen is a BJJ black belt I believe
he can handle his own against Hernandez who for the weight class is a smaller middle weight.
Hernandez does not have great defensive wresting. He gets taken down at a 65% clip. He is
not a great striker. He got mauled by Markus Perez in his UFC debut. Gets dropped by Kevin
Holland and then goes on to fight a string of strikers and out wrestles all of them. These are
professional fighters so I’m not trying to discount that but he has not faced the level of
competition as Brandon Allen will bring to Saturday night. I just think Hernandez is too risky for
the price. He hasn’t been knocked out but he has been chin check and knocked down a
couple times. This is a pure value bet.
My pick: Brandon Allen
Jean Matsumoto will be a favorite going in to his fight vs UFC great Rob Font. I can’t get
enough Rob Font in this one. I don’t know how he is currently the underdog in this match up
but I love the plus money. Trust me I am aware of of Font’s weak take down defense, he
basically can get taken down at will. But he has been working on his get-up game and that
should help his success in this one. Font has had a full camp in preparation for this fight, while
Matsumoto took this fight on short notice with Dominick Cruz pulling out and subsequently
retiring. All that considered along with Matsumoto fighting out of a small gym in Brazil, limited
pro fighting experience ( he has never even fought outside of the UFC Apex) might make for a
long night against an elite striker like Rob Font. Who has fought the best the best the
Bantamweight division has had to offer. The only path to victory in my opinion for Matsumoto is
to TKO Font or just straight turn the lights out. With Matsumoto’s last knockout coming more
than 6 years ago I don’t see a likely possibility for Saturday night.
My Pick: Rob Font
Next up we have Jean Silva taking on Melsik Baghdasaryan. Now this fight could be much
closer than the -500 for Jean Silva might entail. This is not because Jean Silva doesn’t have a
clear path to victory, he does, its just a matter of if he will take it or not. Melsik simply can’t
grapple. Not saying Silva is some master on the ground but he is competent, while Melsik has
close to no skill. What Melsik is great at is striking with a ton of power. Silva who just love to
fight, loves to trade could fall right in to what Melsik is good at. Silva trains with Fighting Nerds
out of Brazil, a great team who will almost certainly encourage Silva to get the fight to the
ground. Whether Silva listens to them is a different story. With those thoughts I was almost
leaning towards going with Melsik on this one but then I looked at his previous scheduled
fights. He pulled out of his last 4 scheduled fight because of injury or undisclosed reasons. He
is 33 and his body seems to be breaking down on him. Now there isn’t a ton of value betting
Silva at -500 but I do see a world where Melsik might be winning the 1st round and could be a
live betting opportunity so watch for that.
My pick: Jean Silva
Props: (Maybe Live Bet Silva), Silva by submission, Over 1.5 rounds
At light heavyweight Alonzo Menifield will fight Julius Walker. Menifield in my opinion is not that
good. He is 37 years old, got in to MMA after a semi-pro football career. So starting MMA later
in life didn’t allow him to develop the skills needed to be a top level fighter. He has lost his last
2 fights by knockout, one happening in the first 12 seconds of round 1. He is not a good striker
and not a good wrestler and his cardio leaves something to be desired. He is really just a
strong guy. He gets knock downs but doesn’t actually finish. Now Walker on the other hand did
do things the right way. He is 25 got in to MMA at 20. So he is still learning but has 5 years
training. He has fought the best opponents available to him. He brings some solid cardio to the
table and throws straight punches as opposed to Menifield’s long looping punches. When
Walker gets you to the ground his ground and pound game is strong. 205 is lacking in talent
and its my belief that is why a guy like Menifield even exists but really shouldn’t be there.
My pick: Julius Walker
Ibo vs Ion. Ibo Aslan will take on Ion Cutelaba. Sounds like a fight between 2 cyborgs. Could
be a fight between 2 robots charged up to 20% each. Neither of these guys have a battery I trust. Ion even when he tries to pace himself runs out of gas and Ibo doesn’t even try to pace
himself and usually gasses after round 1 if he doesn’t simply knock the guy out. Ibo is 14-1 by
doing this same exact thing, which has obviously worked so far but he hasn’t faced a wrestler
like Ion Cutelaba. Ion is not some super star wrester with all these accolades but he is better
than Ibo. I dont like betting on guys with weak gas tanks but when you put 2 of them in a cage
together one has to walk away victorious. I know I just got done trashing both of their gas
tanks but I do like the over 1.5 rounds. I think Ion with wrestle Ibo slowing down the fight.
My pick: Ion Cutelaba
Props: Over 1.5 rounds
Andre “Touchy” Fili (one of the best fight names in the game) will enter the octagon against
Melquizael Costa. Normally I would say give me Fili who just simply has the better pedigree of
the 2 fighters but I seriously have questions about his desire to fight. His last fight he seemed
disinterested and was going through the motions. While I know Costa will bring it, I still can’t
pick him. These are professional fighters and how can I possibly predict someone’s heart to
participate? I just have to assume they are going to go out there and give 100%. Fili is the
better wrestler, his striking is on par with Costa but with 23 UFC fights to his name his
experience should speak loudly in this one. Costa can get takedown and controlled pretty
easily and he will not be able to take Fili down. So Costa will be limited to trying to outwork Fili
by throwing weak strikes from the outside and to me that is a pretty limited path to victory.
My pick: Andre “Touchy” Fili
With the largest spread on the card Mansur Abdul-Malik goes against Nick Klein. Now Mansur
has been running through everyone he has faced but its tough to know how good he is and at
a -900 at some books doesn’t leave a lot of meat on the bone if you know what I’m saying.
Mansur is young and learning quickly on the job. But that price is too high for someone who I
dont know what his strengths are, who I don’t know what his weaknesses are either. Now he
could be very good one day, I just dont know where he is at right now. With all the being said
Nick Klein isn’t better or gives me more confidence from a betting standpoint. He has only
fought low level competition. Got a win on Contender Series by rushing his opponent and
choking him out in front of Dana White, which landed him a contract with the UFC. Klein is not
very active works a regular job and his win condition is rush the opponent and finish him right
away. Not a good strategy in my opinion.
My Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik
Props:Klein sub, Malik by TKO
Javid Basharat takes on falling star Ricky Simon. Ricky had such an amazing start to his career
but has since disappointed to say the least. A power wrestler who once dominated opponents
now shoots weak take downs and when he does get them, lets his challengers back up with
little resistance. Simon is fighting in somewhat of a home crowd for him, lower on the card,
which mean it could be some regional judges on the fight leaving a possible Simon by split
decision. Javid certainly will not finish Simon. The Basharat brother love to outstrke their
opponents but never actually finish them. Over on rounds could be a good based for building
parlays. Its pretty juiced up right now but with good reason because neither of these guys are
finishers. Javid can’t finish anyone and Simon’s strikes are very mechanical and go 1-2, 1-2,
with nothing exotic for Javid to really worry about.
My pick: Javid Basharat
Props:Javid by decision, Simon by split decision, Over 2.5 rounds
Nikolay Veretennikov fights Austin Vanderford (better known as Paige Vanzant’s husband) on
Saturday night. Neither of these fighters are high level at anything. So you have to look deeper
to predict a winner. I go back to the fact Paige Vanzant will likely divorce Austin if he doesn’t
get this win. I’m kidding but seriously this is how far deep I got to go to break down this fight.
Vanderford was on Contender series way back in 2018 and didn’t get signed. Now he is back
facing Veretennikov who pulled out of his fight last week and was given a fight this week not
sure the reason for that. He goes 0-3 in Russia to start his pro fight career. His take down
defense is not very good. He is relatively small for the weight class. He has not fought high
level competition. At least Vanderford was a 2 time state wresting champion in Alaska. Now
how good is Alaska state wresting? Who knows? But its something. Now as mentioned before
this fight takes place in Seattle, Vanderford lives in Orergon so maybe a little home town
boost? But he did take this fight on short notice which we know can be tough on some guys.
But him being ready so quickly does leave me to believe that he knew he was getting a fight
just didn’t know which one so hopefully he had a good camp getting ready for this one. Nikolay
doesn’t work angles at all and I think will be standing right there for Vanderford take downs.
My pick: Austin Vanderford
In the biggest head scratcher, what the hell am I doing even looking in to this fight of the night.
Nursulton Ruziboev will fight Eric Mcconico. The best I can say about Ruzi is that he doesn’t
suck as bad a Mcconico. When you look at Ruzi’s Tapology page its littered with warnings of
unverifiable wins. Awesome. While Mcconico doesn’t even have a real photo taken by the UFC.
Even more awesome. Mcconico is a career regional guy, 34 and does have some skills. Are
they UFC type skills? That remains to be seen. He can be knocked out but will push some
pace and not quit at least. Ruzi’s success mostly comes in the first half of fights and can fade
as the fight goes on. So like I said I’m picking the lesser of 2 evils.
My pick: Nursulton Ruziboev
Kicking off the night we have Modestas Bakaukas fighting Raffael Cerqueira. Raffael debuts in
the UFC at 34 as a mostly Brazilian regional guy. Shows no real skills and is a very low level
fighter in my opinion. Modestas is a better striker and better on the ground but don’t load up
on this one its far from a lock. Modestas has durability issues and there is a decent chance he
gets dropped. The longer the fight goes the better for Modestas.
My pick: Modestas Bakaukas
Props: Bakaukas inside the distance
