Monday Night Football Betting Preview
By: Riggs Tamburo | Date: October 17th, 2022
Denver Broncos +4.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 | Over/Under 45.5 Points
Game Preview:
Another week, another Primetime Broncos game. The Denver Broncos come into this game with a 2-3 record and will be on the road in Los Angeles taking on the Chargers. Last Thursday in their 12-9 loss to Indianapolis, the Broncos poor offensive woes continued, not even reaching the endzone one time. Denver will be trying to end their 2-game losing streak, while also trying to pick up their first road win of the season in Sofi Stadium.
The Los Angeles Chargers come into this game with a 3-2 record, coming off a 30-28 win over the Cleveland Browns. Unlike the Broncos, the Chargers have won their past two games and will be looking to ride that momentum into this one. On average, Los Angeles is putting up 24.4 points per game, throwing for 291 yards, and rushing for 99. Offensively, this Chargers team is rolling much more than this Denver Broncos team. With that said, the Chargers defense is struggling, allowing 27 points per game. The run defense appears to be solid, especially not having to face Javonte Williams, but if Russell Wilson heats up, he can expose these cornerbacks.
In this clash between AFC West foes, it’s understandable why one would want to fade this Broncos team and never look back. Through the first five games, QB Russell Wilson has only thrown four touchdowns this year, with three interceptions. In those five games, he only surpassed 300+ yards one time and it was Week 1 against Seattle. In comparison, QB Justin Herbert has thrown for 10 touchdowns, with only two interceptions. Many people have already written off the Broncos and Russell Wilson, but I truly don’t believe the team has settled in yet. First, they lose by 1-point to the Seahawks in Week 1 and the finger was pointed at new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett. Then the team got a couple of ugly wins under their belt, and the unfortunate loss of Javonte Williams happened. Last Thursday the blame got put on Russell Wilson after the team failed to reach the endzone and Wilson went 21-for-39, with 274 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions, The poor performance resulted in a season-low QB rating of 54.9. There continues to be loads of pressure and blame put on Russell Wilson, and he needs to rally this team and find a way to win this football game. Many people are calling for this to be yet another boring Primetime game, but in my opinion this one potentially has fireworks written all over it.
Key Injuries
Los Angeles Chargers
WR- Keenan Allen: Hamstring (Doubtful)
OT- Trey Pipkins: Knee (Questionable)
Denver Broncos
RB- Melvin Gordon lll: Neck/Ribs (Questionable)
OG- Dalton Risner: Back (Questionable)
LB- Josey Jewell: Knee (OUT)
S- Caden Sterns: Hip (OUT)
Chargers v Broncos Picks & Predictions: WHAT TO BET ON
Spread Pick:
The Los Angeles Chargers are very intriguing in this spot, but I have weird feeling about this one. I feel that this is one of those games I call a “trend breaker”. Los Angeles are 4-1 at the spread in their last five games. Denver is 0-5 at the spread in their last five games. To put the icing on the cake, 65% of bets are the Chargers to cover the number here. I believe this Broncos defense is more than capable of making things difficult for Justin Herbert tonight. This Denver defense are the only reason the team has two wins on the year so far and with the Chargers missing star WR Keenan Allen tonight, it makes coverage much easier. On the flip side, I believe Denver RB’s Melvin Gordon lll and Mike Boone can keep the chains moving all night long. This porous Chargers run defense are allowing the highest yards per carry with 6.2. in a game that I believe the Broncos may outright, I’ll happily take the free +4.5 points.
Over/Under Pick:
As I mentioned above, watch for many trends to be broken in this game. The under is 4-1 this year in games involving the Broncos. I expect both teams to have success running the football and keeping drives alive. Look for both teams to establish the run early and then start taking a couple shots downfield and open up the air attack. It may start slow, and I may be asking for too much, but I truly believe Russell Wilson throws for right around 225-250 yards and 1-2 passing touchdowns. Likewise, Justin Herbert should have his moments and I believe this over will hit late in the 4th quarter, maybe even on the final drive of the game.
TOP Prop:
Brandon McManus and Dustin Hopkins are both top 10 legs in the NFL and will be counted on tonight. While I do see both offenses waking up in this game, I expect it start a little slow. 1st score to be a FG +100.
Honorable Mention:
With Javonte Williams out and Melvin Gordon lll banged up, I think there’s a chance Russ sneaks his way in to cash in a huge ticket, good luck! Russell Wilson anytime TD +650
